Showing posts with label Dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dollar. Show all posts

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Shakeout from money fund's collapse just starting

Shakeout from last fall's money-market fund collapse just starting to sink in

BOSTON (AP) -- It's not the sexiest investment around, but the money-market mutual fund has become a high-demand safe haven for those who can no longer stomach the stock market.
Think again, however, if you believe you've found quiet refuge among the growing ranks of play-it-safe types who have nearly $3.9 trillion stashed in these investments.
Money funds are generally safe places to park cash because they invest in the safest types of debt. Many buy government bonds such as Treasury bills, while so-called prime funds seek slightly higher yields but accept marginal risk by venturing into short-term corporate bonds.

The downside of such risk hit home last fall when a soured investment in Lehman Brothers debt spooked investors who suddenly pulled cash out of the Reserve Primary Fund. While that run was triggered by the fund's institutional clients, individual investors could end up losing roughly 8 cents on each dollar invested. The fund's collapse marked just the second instance that money fund investors have been exposed to losses in the nearly four decades money funds have been around.
To prevent another such debacle, the industry and government regulators are weighing fundamental changes in how money funds operate. Their moves could make money funds even safer, but trim their already tiny yields.
A program to temporarily provide money funds with government guarantees similar to FDIC bank deposit insurance is due to expire April 30, although it's expected to be extended. And some observers expect fund companies will eventually replace the government backing with their own industry insurance program.
Meanwhile, yields on taxable money funds -- a category that includes Treasury funds and prime funds -- fell to an all-time low average of 0.29 percent this week, according to the Money Fund Report, published by iMoneyNet.
The extended period of low yields has triggered a competitive shakeup. When it's over, the number of companies offering the more than 1,700 funds is expected to shrink, reducing consumers' money fund options
The changes are swirling around an investment that's usually so low-profile it's typically compared with bank certificates of deposit.
"Everybody will look forward to a time when money funds are boring again," said Peter Crane, publisher of the newsletter Money Fund Intelligence.
Still, experts say there are no indications that investors will suffer losses anytime soon in any other money funds. But the Reserve mess spurred proposals for changes that are just beginning to ripple across the money fund industry, which now holds about 40 percent of the total $9.4 trillion in all U.S. mutual fund assets. Some of the changes:

--GUARANTEES CAN BE FLEETING: With money fund assets at a record high, the guarantee program prompted by the Primary Fund's troubles is expected to be extended, possibly to Sept. 18 -- a year after the guarantees started.
Fund companies have paid more than $800 million so far in fees to extend government backing to their funds and bolster investor confidence. No claims have been paid out -- the Reserve Primary Fund didn't meet the coverage criteria.
The industry's trade group isn't counting on the guarantees sticking around. Paul Schott Stevens, the Investment Company Institute's chief executive, told a Senate panel Tuesday that ICI looks forward to "an orderly transition" out of the program.
A panel of fund industry leaders that the ICI recently convened expects to recommend money fund changes later this month.
While ICI isn't yet saying what it envisions, an adviser to institutional investors expects the industry will eventually dig into its pockets to create a private insurance system.
"Investors are looking to something to hang onto, even though money fund managers may have full confidence they don't need insurance," said Lance Pan, a research director at Newton, Mass.-based Capital Advisors Group.

--DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR RULE CHALLENGED: Money funds are supposed to hold at least $1 in assets for each investor dollar put in. That's the safety benchmark that the Primary Fund violated when it "broke the buck" after a rush of investor redemptions forced it to quickly unload assets.
Some critics argue the dollar-for-dollar target is too strict, and should allow fluctuations. That way, the thinking goes, investors afraid of seeing a fund break the buck would be less inclined to suddenly pull out.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke touched on the issue on Tuesday, saying that policymakers "should consider how to increase the resiliency of those funds that are susceptible to runs." Bernanke said possible approaches include tighter restrictions on the type of investments funds can make, and an insurance system to prevent instances of breaking the buck.
Robert Plaze, associate director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Investment Management, said in an interview that his agency was examining ways to prevent individual investors from being hurt by institutional investors who can destabilize a fund by suddenly pulling out a huge sum.

In contrast, small-time investors "move in and out on a fairly predictable basis," Plaze said.

--YIELD SHAKEUP: With money fund yields near zero, some companies' returns are barely enough to offset expenses to run their lowest-yielding funds. That's led to several recent cases of providers closing Treasury-only funds to new investors, or limiting new investments by existing clients. Others are trimming or waiving management fees to ensure clients see modest returns. But eventually, providers may pass on higher fees to investors.
Crane, of Crane Data, said the competitive balance will increasingly tip in favor of bigger providers. And should a fund see one of its investments sour, bigger companies are more likely to have cash to temporarily prop up the fund and prevent it from breaking the buck.
In the end, said Crane: "The pressure will grow on some of those smaller players to exit the market."


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Audit: Fla. lottery sales going flat in recession

Auditors recommend more control of office space, commissions to offset flat Fla. lottery sales

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) -- Florida Lottery sales are going flat, a legislative audit reported Thursday.

Growth in the lottery's annual contributions to education began to slow down in fiscal year 2007-08. Now, officials are reducing their goals for future years.
The audit by the Office of Program Policy Analysis & Government Accountability said the lottery is wasting money on excess office space and should review commissions paid to retailers who offer various games. Retailers earn a nickel for every dollar ticket sold and receive an additional 1 percent bonus for redeeming winning tickets.

Auditors said the lottery's operating expenses continue to increase mostly because of growth in its commission payments. The lottery paid $121 million to vendors for advertising and providing the online and scratch-off games in this fiscal year alone.
Auditors recommended the department expand its retailer network to increase sales, propose using vending machines for online ticket sales, secure competitive advertising and reduce commissions paid for higher-value scratch off tickets.
Lottery Secretary Leo DiBenigno said that the economy was not the only reason for the slowdown, and that he plans to ask the Legislature to approve some of the recommendations in the audit to help enhance sales, including instant ticket vending machines.
"There would be additional revenue available if we were able to use those tools," he said.

Lawmakers were concerned as well.

"People that were hoping gambling would pay for education, it's just not working out that way," said Sen. Nancy Detert, R-Venice, after hearing about the lottery's woes at a morning education appropriations committee meeting.
The audit noted that the lottery has introduced new scratch off games, midday drawings and the multistate game, Powerball, in January in hopes of boosting sales in a sluggish economy. Powerball sales totaled $50 million in its first month, but sales decreased in several other existing games.
Florida was previously the only state that did not participate in any multistate games.
Florida voters approved a constitutional amendment in 1986 authorizing the state to operate a lottery with profits aimed at enhancing education.


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Monday, March 9, 2009

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Retreats Further but Near Term Support Still Intact

Dollar weakens against most major currencies in early US session but the weakness is so far limited well above key near term support levels against Euro, Swissy and Aussie. Otherwise, the markets are lacking a clear direction ahead of key event risks later this week. Stocks are mostly flat while commodities are also bounded in tight range. The economic calendar is rather light today with US pending home sales only, which unexpectedly rose 6.3% to 87.7 in Dec, first rise in four months. Fed said it will extend the emergency lending programs and foreign currency swap lines by Six months through Oct 30 as there are still "continuing substantial strains in many financial markets."

Germany retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.2% mom (consensus: +0.5%) in December while November's reading was also revised down to a fall of 0.1%. On yearly basis, the gauge dropped 0.3% following the revised 3.2% fall in the previous month. Eurozone's PPI contracted 1.3% mom in December, worse than consensus of 1.1% but better than the revised 2% drop in November, as falling energy and food prices caused great disinflation in the 16-country region. Although ECB said explicitly that interest rate will remain unchanged in February, we believe aa big cut will be seen in March. On annual basis, PPI rose 1.8% in December, slower than 2.1% as market anticipated and 3.3% in the previous month. In Switzerland, trade surplus in December narrowed to CHF 220M from a revised CHF 2250M in the previous month as exports dropped severely by 13%.
On the other hand, UK's construction PMI showed some upside surprise as January's reading rose to 34.5 from 29.3 a month ago. Despite the improvement, it's the 11th month that the index came in below 50, indicating contraction in the sector.
In Asian session, the RBA lowered interest rate by another 100 bps to 3.25%, the lowest level since 1964 as "'there was a significant deterioration in world economic conditions late in 2008". The central bank has reduced its policy rate by 400 bps since September 2008. The Australian government also announced it will roll out an AUD 42B stimulus plan over this and the next 3 fiscal year so as to prevent the country from falling into recession. The package includes AUD 12.7B in grants from next month to families and low-income earners and AUD 28.8B on infrastructure. The plan will, however, send Australia's budget into an AUD 22.5B deficit, the first shortfall since fiscal 2001-02. RBA believes that "the combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies now in place will help to cushion the Australian economy from the contractionary forces coming from abroad." Also released from Australia, trade surplus narrowed to AUD 589M in December, worse than market expectation of AUD 1050M and the revised AUD 979M in November, as cola and metal exports declined.
BoJ said it will buy 1 trillion yen of shares held by financial companies. BoJ will buy equities through Apr 2010 to boost capital of financial institutions.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1565; (P) 1.1624; (R1) 1.1672;
USD/CHF failed 1.1714 resistance and retreats sharply since then. With 1.1515 minor support broken, intraday bias is turned neutral. Though, as long as 1.1313 support holds, rise from 1.0366 is still in favor to resume. Above 1.1714 will target a retest of 1.2248/96 resistance zone. However, note that further break of 1.1313 support will confirm that rebound from 1.0366 has completed and will bring deeper decline towards 1.0864 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, current favored interpretation is that medium term rise from 0.9634 has topped at 1.2248 orthodox top rather than 1.2296. In other words, three wave structure of the fall from 1.2258 to 1.0366 argues that it's merely a correction in the medium term up trend. Rise from 1.0366 should now extend to retest 1.2248/2296. Nevertheless, decisive break of the resistance zone is needed to confirm resumption of medium term rise from 0.9634. Otherwise, some large scale consolidation could be seen, with risk of another test of 1.0366 before up trend resumption. Below 1.0864 will bring another down leg of the consolidation to 1.0366 and below.


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SigmaForex may require further identification or documentation in order to complete your request.
Please Note that transfer fees and bank charges may apply, and depend on the form of transfer.
Please note that we try to process the withdrawal request quickly. However, it may take up to 5 business days, depending on the method of transfer.

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