Monday, February 23, 2009

Swiss Re posts surprise loss

Swiss Re, the world's second-largest reinsurer, after Munich Re, missed forecasts on most of its results except combined ratio, as natural catastrophes also took their toll after being below forecast a year earlier, and said aggregate net claims for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike were around $365 million in the third quarter.

Swiss Re, which is based in Zurich, has been hurt more than its competitors by the financial crisis, writing down around 3 billion francs on its investments so far in its financial services unit, which creates products to transfer risk to capital markets.
Analysts said that the losses in structured credit default swaps were no surprise but noted that Swiss Re was still heavily exposed, with a current market value of 1.9 billion Swiss francs on its credit default swaps portfolio, which is 41 percent below original par value.
Swiss Re maintained its long-term targets and dividend policy, but analysts warned that the poor results might signal more to come.

"We believe worse is to come in the fourth quarter, despite the numerous hedges and protection in place on the investment side," said Stefan Schürmann, an analyst for Vontobel. "The company suspended the share buyback program, which hints at the difficult capital situation in the currently volatile financial markets."
Swiss Re said it had suspended the share buyback because of high volatility in the financial market and a significant increase in demand for reinsurance, but the company said it was very comfortable with its capitalization.
The company said it could still complete the buyback by April 2010, but in a conference call, the chief financial officer, George Quinn, said Swiss Re preferred to use the money for new business in the meantime.
"We see positive signs in the property and casualty businesses," Quinn said. "We're cautiously optimistic about the pricing trend for 2009."
Noting higher overall demand for reinsurance, he added, "It does not feel like a smart thing to do to reduce excess capital in the current very volatile market conditions."
Return on investment declined in the third quarter and will continue to drop as the company tries to reduce risk, Quinn said.
Swiss Re said that it sharply cut its exposure to corporate credit during the third quarter and that its corporate bonds were now fully hedged.



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Swiss Re Has Record Fourth-Quarter Loss on Writedowns (Update1)

Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, posted a record fourth-quarter loss after a failed effort to boost earnings with sales and trading of securities.
The loss of 1.75 billion Swiss francs ($1.49 billion) compares with net income of 170 million francs reported a year earlier. The full-year shortfall was 864 million francs, Zurich- based Swiss Re said in a statement today, less than the 1 billion francs estimated Feb. 5, when the company announced preliminary results.
Swiss Re said its funding requirements will rise by $1.5 billion after Standard & Poor’s lowered its debt rating yesterday. The company turned to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. this month for 3 billion francs of capital and replaced Chief Executive Officer Jacques Aigrain, whose strategy of trading securities led to the record losses.
“This result is clearly disappointing,” Stefan Lippe, who replaced Aigrain as CEO, said in the statement. “We have already taken extensive measures to de-risk the investment portfolio and to further protect the long-term financial strength of the company.”
Swiss Re added 32 centimes, or 1.8 percent, to 17.94 francs at 9:54 a.m. The stock has lost 64 percent this year, making it the worst performer in the 35-member Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index.
Swiss Re became the world’s biggest reinsurer after buying GE Insurance Solutions in 2005 and now has less than one quarter of the market value of market leader Munich Re.

Buffett’s Stake
S&P cut Swiss Re’s credit and financial-strength ratings to A+ from AA- after the market close yesterday, citing “greater- than-anticipated capital depletion.”
The company’s losses “are symptomatic of Swiss Re’s greater tolerance for financial risk than its peers,” S&P said.
To defend its credit rating, Swiss Re said it will cut its dividend to 10 centimes a share and may seek to raise 2 billion francs on top of the investment by Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of convertible bonds may give it a stake of more than 20 percent in Swiss Re.
Swiss Re has been plagued by losses on credit default swaps, contracts sold to protect clients against declines in fixed- income securities, after the worst U.S. housing market since the Great Depression sparked a global credit crunch.
The company had 5.89 billion francs of writedowns in 2008, including 2 billion francs in structured credit default swaps and 3.2 billion francs in discontinued trading activities.

Insurers’ Losses
Insurers worldwide have posted more than $166 billion in losses and writedowns tied to the collapse of the mortgage market according to Bloomberg data.
Aigrain ramped up Swiss Re’s sales and trading of securities in 2006 and 2007, when the reinsurance business was trying to cope with stagnant premiums. While the strategy boosted profit in 2006, the credit crunch and rising bond defaults forced record writedowns in 2008. About a third of Swiss Re’s markdowns were tied to credit default swaps, it said.
The company is disbanding its financial markets unit as part of its “derisking” strategy. Remaining assets will be split between the asset-management division and a new “legacy” unit that will hold the company’s credit-default swaps, which provide guarantees against corporate bond defaults.
“We would expect it will take us a year to two to demonstrate that the steps we’ve taken will be sufficient,” Chief Financial Officer George Quinn told reporters on a conference call. “S&P acknowledges that once we complete the capital plan we will hold capital in the AA range.”
The firm will announced revised targets for return on equity later this year, Quinn said.
Demand for reinsurance is increasing, pushing up prices during January renewals, said Quinn in a Bloomberg Television interview today, adding that he expects “a continuing improvement throughout this year.”


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Swiss Trading Swiss Re agrees $1.5bn credit line

Swiss Re, the world's second-largest reinsurer, has agreed a $1.5bn (£1bn) long-term credit facility to allow it to take advantage of "significant opportunities" emerging in the reinsurance market.
The insurance giant said it had agreed the credit facility with investment bank JP Morgan to meet US regulatory requirements for its life business.
It added that the financing, which matures in 2028, will replace existing arrangements the company has in place for collateral for the US business.
Previously it provided the required collateral for its Swiss Re Life and Health America businesses by placing various assets in a trust. Those assets will now effectively be freed up to support the rest of Swiss Re.

The company declined to comment on speculation that the credit line will allow it to become more involved in merger and acquisition deals, but said the "unprecedented turmoil in the capital markets" had created opportunities for "well capitalised insurance and reinsurance companies".
Swiss Re added it was "in a strong position to respond to increasing demands from our clients for reinsurance solutions".
Jacques Aigrain, Swiss Re's chief executive, said "notwithstanding the difficult capital market environment", the arrangement with JP Morgan "will further enhance our position to be able to benefit from opportunities that arise from the current market environment".

One insurance analyst said it was possible that Swiss Re is raising money for acquisitions. He noted the company had been active in a number of major deals, and had been in discussions to provide reinsurance support to private equity firm CVC, which is mulling a bid for the insurance assets of Royal Bank of Scotland.
However, the analyst described the decision to renegotiate the credit facility now – just before the year end – as curious. He said: "I am always cynical about companies raising money at this time of the year."
Swiss Re described the new financing as "attractive" but disclosed few details of the arrangement.
Another analyst said the deal might provide policyholders with a greater sense of security. Tim Dawson, an analyst with Helvea in Geneva, told Bloomberg: "This means that in the end, the US policy-holder knows that if the worst comes to the worst, JP Morgan will advance the money to make good the losses from a financial shortfall."


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Global mobile phone Hong Kong Stocks Advance on China Stimulus Plan Speculation

-- Hong Kong stocks rose, reversing declines, as investors bet more government support measures from China will help ease an economic slowdown.
China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., the country’s No. 2 mobile- phone company, added 4.2 percent after Citigroup Inc. recommended investors to buy the stock. TCL Multimedia Technology Holdings Ltd., the television unit of China’s biggest consumer-electronics maker, advanced 2.6 percent after the nation approved a stimulus package for the electronics and information-technology industry.

“China’s stimulus comes in the form of a systematic package to save individual sectors one by one,” said Danny Yan, a portfolio manager at Taifook Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, which manages about $500 million. “That presents opportunities for us fund managers to do rotational buying.” His fund has been buying shares in electronics and water resources companies.
The Hang Seng Index added 7.36, or 0.1 percent, to close at 13,023.36. The gauge reversed a drop of as much as 1.8 percent during the last 30 minutes of trading. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks so-called H-shares, climbed 0.7 percent to 7,266.24.
“Government measures are the focus,” said Castor Pang, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Sun Hung Kai Securities Ltd. “When it comes to Thursday or Friday, the market starts a new round of speculation about China announcing rate cut over the weekend.”


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Lending Program,Displaced OFWs avail of OWWA lending program

Iloilo City (18 February) -- The regional office of the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA) in Western Visayas said that around 47 displaced overseas Filipino workers (OFWs)in the region have already applied for its lending program as of February 17, 2009.
Under the OWWA's lending program or the Filipino Expatriate Livelihood Support Fund (FELSF), OFWs displaced due to global financial crisis can borrow up to P50,000 to start a livelihood project or business enterprise after accomplishing all needed requirements.
FELSF is part of the Comprehensive Livelihood and Emergency Program of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo that aims to protect the most vulnerable sectors including the returning expatriates from threat and consequences of reduced or lost of income due to the global economic crisis.

OWWA 6 Family Welfare Officer Rizza Mapa said the 47 displaced overseas workers are part of the 55 who availed of the services of their Help Desk set up in their office at Gen. Luna Street, Iloilo City, as of February 17.
Of the 55 displaced workers, 27 are from the province of Iloilo, 23 from Negros Occidental, 3 from Guimaras and 1 each from the provinces of Antique and Aklan.
Data obtained from OWWA 6 indicated that no displaced OFW from the province of Capiz have sought the OWWA 6 Help Desk during the period.

Mapa said most of the affected overseas workers came from Taiwan while others came from destinations like United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Most of the displaced overseas workers went home due to retrenchment.
Mapa added that 18 of the 55 displaced OFWs have also availed of the skills training from the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority while 12 others were referred to recruitment agency for easy or immediate deployment.
The Help Desk was among the first measures set up by OWWA, an attached agency of the Department of Labor and Employment to help OFWs adversely affected by the global financial crisis
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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Dollar euro basket Russian ruble posts biggest jump on dollar-euro basket in two years

MOSCOW -- The ruble strengthened a record 1.9% against a euro-dollar basket of currencies, boosted by liquidity constraints and, at least for now, turning its back on a period of frequent daily devaluations.

Central-bank efforts to draw a line under the ruble's weakening appear to be working -- the ruble closed at 39.77 to the basket Wednesday, up 1.9%, or 77 kopecks, and moving further away from the 41 boundary of its trading band.

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Loan Program Fed Ramps Up Emergency Loan Program

The Federal Reserve boosted its lending to commercial banks and investment firms over the past week, indicating that a severe credit crisis was still squeezing the financial system.
The Fed released a report Friday saying commercial banks averaged $93.6 billion in daily borrowing for the week ending Wednesday. That was up from an average of $91.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 19.
The report also said investment firms borrowed an average of $52.4 billion from the Fed's emergency loan program over the week ending Wednesday, up from an average of $50.2 billion the previous week.
The Fed said its net holdings of business loans known as commercial paper over the week ending Wednesday averaged $282.2 billion, an increase of $16.5 billion from the previous week.

Financial firms are borrowing from the Fed because they are having trouble raising money through normal channels as the financial system endures its worst crisis since the Great Depression.
Banks are hoarding cash rather than making loans out of fear that they won't be repaid. The Fed and the Treasury have been flooding the financial system with money in hopes that banks can return lending operations to more normal levels.
The central bank on Oct. 27 began buying commercial paper, the short-term debt that companies use to pay everyday expenses. It was one of a series of moves the Fed has made to try to unfreeze credit markets.
The Fed's goal is to raise demand in this area as a way to boost the availability of commercial paper, which has been seriously constrained since the financial crisis hit with force in September.

The report said insurance giant American International Group's loan from the Fed averaged $79.6 billion for the week ending Wednesday. That was down by $5.6 billion from the average the previous week.
The reduction reflected a modification of the government's support program for AIG earlier this month. Under that change, Treasury stepped in with a $40 billion purchase of stock in AIG, using money from the government's $700 billion financial system rescue package. The increased support from Treasury allowed the Fed to reduce slightly the size of its total loans to AIG.
The Fed unveiled two new programs Tuesday in a further effort to get consumer credit flowing again.
It said it would begin buying mortgage-backed securities from mortgage giants such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And it announced a program to lend to financial firms that buy securities backed by various types of consumer debt, from credit cards to auto and student loans.

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Sigurdardottir Icelandic Minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir, Would Be World's First Gay PM

Icelandic Social Affairs Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir would be the world's first openly gay leader if she becomes Prime Minister of Iceland, as is widely expected. Although Per-Kristian Foss served as acting Prime Minister in Norway very briefly in 2002, this represents the first time that a gay leader would assume the reins of a modern state. Sigurdardottir would also become the first female Prime Minister in Iceland's history.
As has been extensively reported, Iceland is in the midst of an economic and political crisis that has brought down the ruling coalition of Geir Haarde. Although elections have been called for in May, Mr. Haarde has announced that he will step down because of the discovery of a malignant tumor on his esophagus earlier this week.

It is all but certain that Johanna Sigurdardottir will replace Geir Haarde (in background) as Iceland's next Prime Minister. Photo credit: Vidskiptabladid/HARI
This small North Atlantic nation was the first to elect a female head of state when Vigdis Finnbogadottir became its 4th president in 1980. Although that event was widely publicized at the time, Ms. Sigurdardottir's appointment has been met with general apathy both inside and outside the country.
I guess I still have the attitude of most Icelanders when it comes to matters of sexual issues, because I failed to pick up on the newsworthiness of Sigurdardottir's sexual orientation. "Oh, vow," said an American friend of mine, "that's really something! First openly gay world leader!"
Huh? Why, who cares? Even after living in America all these years, where hounding politicians into surrealistic hell about their private lives is the norm, it didn't really ring bells for me. "I don't see what her sexual orientation has to do with anything," my mother told me yesterday. "It's no one's business but her own."

My usually taciturn father agreed strongly. "She is the most trusted and respected politician in the country," he said, "and she is simply the best person available for the job. Ja, that is just twisted thinking," he replied when I told him that her sexual orientation would probably be more newsworthy in America than anything else surrounding her appointment.
Sigurdardottir, 66, has a long background in Icelandic liberal politics. She has been a member of Althingi (the Parliament) since 1978, was Minister of Social Affairs in 1987 until 1994, and again in 2007. She is one of the most popular politicians in the country; in a recent Gallup poll 73 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with her work. She is also the only minister whose popularity had increased compared to a similar poll undertaken in December 2007.

Sigurdardottir is the mother of two grown sons and is married to Icelandic writer and playwright Jonina Leosdottir. She is often described by many of her countrymen as the only politician who really cares about the "little guy." She has devoted her career to fighting for the welfare and equality of minority groups - women, the elderly, the poor, disabled, and immigrants. She holds no fancy foreign diplomas - she has a Commercial degree from the Commercial College of Iceland - nor extensive family or wealth connections like many Icelandic politicians but has diligently worked her way up the political ladder through hard work and determination. Her professional career includes working in the 60s and 70s as a flight attendant for Icelandair (the old Loftleidir Airlines) and an office worker in Reykjavik.
Germans agonized over whether they were ready for its first gay leader in 2006 after that country's leading homosexual politician, Klaus Wowereit, 55, who proudly hugged his long-standing boyfriend in front of television cameras, won a second term as mayor of Berlin. The French grappled with the issue in 2001 when Bertrand Delanoe, 59, one of the country's first openly gay politicians became mayor of Paris. Last year, the popular Delanoe declared his candidacy for leadership of France's Socialist party and has been said to be considering running for president in 2012.

"No one has ever talked about Johanna (Icelanders always use first names) as a gay person," an Icelandic friend and a prominent journalist told me this morning. "She's not hiding it either, the name of her spouse is on her Parliament and Ministry web pages, it's just that nobody cares about it, any more than people cared in 1980, when Vigdis Finnbogadottir ran for president, that she was a woman and a single mother to boot.
"Johanna is very smart and not afraid to tackle difficult issues, and I think she can unite us," my friend added. "Reasonable, sane people are not going to care about people's gender or color. They just want the best person for the job."

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Gas assets

Cnooc, Li & Fung, PetroChina, PCCW: Hong Kong Equity PreviewThe following companies may have unusual price changes in Hong Kong trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are as of the last close.

The Hang Seng Index slipped 310.91, or 2.3 percent, to 13,228.30. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks so-called H shares of Chinese companies, dropped 3.1 percent to 7,367.56.
Oil producers: Crude oil futures dropped 5.5 percent to $33.98 a barrel in New York yesterday, the lowest settlement since Dec. 19. The contract was recently at $34.56 in after-hours trading.
Cnooc Ltd. (883 HK), China’s biggest offshore oil producer, slipped 2.3 percent to HK$7.16. PetroChina Co. (857 HK), the nation’s largest oil producer, fell 3.4 percent to HK$6.18.

CNPC Hong Kong Ltd. (135 HK): The company forecasts it will double its profit and assets within the next five years by buying projects from its parent company, the South China Morning Post reported. The company will eventually buy all of PetroChina Co. and China National Petroleum Corp.’s gas distribution assets, the newspaper said, citing Chairman Li Hualin. CNPC dropped 0.4 percent to HK$2.25.

Li & Fung Ltd. (494 HK): HSBC Holdings Plc cut its rating on the stock to “neutral” from “overweight,” saying gains may be limited following a five-day rally. Li & Fung, the biggest supplier of toys and clothing to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., advanced 4.6 percent to HK$16.82.
PCCW Ltd. (8 HK): Hong Kong’s biggest phone carrier said yesterday a court hearing on Chairman Richard Li’s HK$15.93 billion ($2.05 billion) buyout offer would be held on Feb. 24, later than previously announced. The stock was unchanged at HK$4.08.

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